This article provides an in-depth fundamental analysis of TVS Srichakra Ltd, a part of the famous TVS group and the leading producer of 2 and 3-wheeler tyres in India under the brand name “TVS Tyres”.
In order to benefit the maximum from this article, an investor should focus on the process of analysis instead of looking for good or bad aspects of the company. She should learn the interpretation of different types of data and transactions and pay attention to the parts of annual reports etc. used to get the information. This will help her in improving her stock analysis skills.
TVS Srichakra Ltd Research Report by Reader
Dear Vijay,
I have been following your blog for quite some time and I find it extremely educative. Thanks for educating the investor community!
Based on your framework, I have analyzed the stock TVS Srichakra Ltd. Please find below my investment rationale.
- TVS Srichakra Ltd has been growing its sales at a good pace of 23% year on year for the last 10 years (FY2006-15).
- The Operating Margin has been steadily improving from 5% in 2006 to 11% in 2016
- The company has been steadily improving its Net Profit Margins from 1% in 2006 to 5% in 2016
- The tax payout rate has been 25 to 30% barring the year 2015 where it has paid tax only to the tune of 15%
- Cumulative Cash Flow from Operating Activity is ₹606 crores in the past ten years, against a cumulative PAT is ₹324 crores
- The Self Sustainable Growth Rate has been -5%(2009), 2% (2010), 7% (2011), 11% (2012), 7% (2013), 5% (2014), 9% (2015) but the company has grown its sales at 22% during the same period, this is evident in the company’s debt levels, it has increased from ₹79 crores in 2006 to ₹205 crores in 2016
- However, the company has reduced debt levels in the financial year 2016 from ₹304 cr to ₹205 crores, this has also resulted in debt to equity ratio of 0.7% which is very much manageable
- The company also maintains a healthy interest coverage ratio of 6.8 in the year 2015
- Net fixed assets turnover has been steady at around 8 over the period of 10 years
- Receivable days have been decreased from 59 days to 42 days over the period of 10 years
- Inventory Turnover has also been steadily improving
- The company has not increased its share capital in the past 10 years
- The company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout ratio for the past 10 years
- The company has total retained earnings for the past 10 years at ₹244 crores against a market cap of ₹1,884 crores. The value created per INR of RE is 7.73 which is very good
- The company is trading at a PE of 9.8, which does provide a reasonable margin of safety
The company is promoted by the TVS group which is known for its high standards in corporate governance.
Please let me know your views.
Thanks & regards,
Dr Vijay Malik’s Response
Hi,
Thank you for sharing your analysis with the author and readers of the website! Let us first analyse the past financial performance of TVS Srichakra Ltd.
TVS Srichakra Ltd has been preparing only standalone financial statements until FY2010. However, in February 2010, it incorporated its first subsidiary, TVS Srichakra Investment Ltd and it started publishing consolidated financials from FY2011 onward.
It is preferable that while analysing any company, the investor should take a view of the entire entity including its subsidiaries, if any, so that she is aware of the complete financial and performance picture of the company. Therefore, while analysing the performance of the last 10 years for TVS Srichakra Ltd, we have analysed standalone financial performance until FY2010 and consolidated financial performance from FY2011 onward.
Financial Analysis of TVS Srichakra Ltd:
TVS Srichakra Ltd, as mentioned by you, has been growing its sales at a good pace of 20% year on year for the last 10 years (FY2007-16). It is important to notice that the operating profit margins (OPM) of TVS Srichakra Ltd, was following a cyclical pattern until FY2013 as visible from the OPM movement from 6% in FY2007 to 9% in FY2010 and again going down to 6% in FY2013. However, from FY2013 onwards, the OPM has been witnessing steady improvement and has steadily improved up to 14% in FY2016.
Such improvement in operating profit margins is a very good development for any business and requires additional due diligence on the part of the investor.
If the investor reads the summary credit rating report for TVS Srichakra Ltd. released by India Ratings on August 19, 2015, then she comes to know quite a lot of features about the business of TVS Srichakra Ltd, which have led to such improvements in the operating profitability margins, namely:
- higher contribution of the aftermarket segment in the revenue, which apparently has higher profit margins
- formula-based pricing contracts with OEMs, which allow for the passage of changes in the raw material costs to the customers, thereby keeping the profitability margins intact and
- improvements in the manufacturing processes leading to cost savings.
Also read: How to do Business Analysis of Tyre Manufacturing Companies
All these key informational inputs can be identified in the summary rationale for TVS Srichakra Ltd, released by India Ratings, which is in the public domain and available freely to all investors:
“Over the last three years, the company has increased the contribution of revenue from the aftermarket segment (FY15: 30%; FY13: 25%) and undertaken sustained improvements in manufacturing processes, leading to a decrease in input costs. Consequently, TVSSC has retained some of the benefits of falling commodity prices as reflected in its higher operating EBITDA margins of 10.8% in FY15 (FY13: 5.8%). TVSSC’s agreements with OEMs provide for a formulabased passthrough of raw material price changes”
We are of the opinion that every investor should read credit rating reports for the companies, which she is analysing so that she may come to know about many key informational inputs about the companies.
Read: 7 Important Reasons Why Every Stock Investor should read Credit Rating Reports
The investor would notice that the net profit margin (NPM) of TVS Srichakra Ltd has also followed a similar pattern to its OPM. NPM witnessed a cyclical pattern from FY2007 to FY2013 and has been witnessing steady improvement since then.
Read: How to do Financial Analysis of a Company
The sudden improvement in NPM from 5% in FY2015 to 8% in FY2016 is also a result of the sale of investments/subsidiary stake by TVS Srichakra Ltd in one of its subsidiary companies TVS Europe Distribution Ltd. TVS Srichakra Ltd has sold its entire stake in TVS Europe Distribution Ltd to another TVS group company VS Automobile Solutions Ltd.
As per the annual report of TVS Srichakra Ltd for FY2016, it has recognized profits of ₹18.17 cr. as part of other income, which is the major component of the total other income of ₹21.44 cr. recognized by TVS Srichakra Ltd in FY2016.
Read: Understanding the Annual Report for a Company
The tax payout ratio of the company has been consistently around 30-33%, except for one year (FY2014), which is a good sign.
Operating Efficiency Analysis of TVS Srichakra Ltd:
Operating efficiency parameters of TVS Srichakra Ltd reflect that the net fixed assets turnover (NFAT) has been witnessing a mixed picture over the last 10 years (FY2007-16). Over this period, TVS Srichakra Ltd has been making significant investments in its manufacturing plants to increase its operating capacity to fulfil the growth requirements. Net fixed assets of TVS Srichakra Ltd have increased from ₹59 cr. in FY2007 to ₹395 cr. in FY2016.
The capacity expansion seems to be still going on as the company has a capital work in progress (CWIP) of ₹44 cr at the end of FY2016. The continued capex, which might not have been fully utilized right after becoming operational, has ensured that the NFAT has been fluctuating between 5-7 over the years and currently hovering around 6.
The working capital efficiency parameters of TVS Srichakra Ltd reflect that the efficiency has improved over the years. The inventory turnover ratio (ITR) has improved from 6 in FY2007 to 10 in FY2016. Similarly, the analysis of receivables days of TVS Srichakra Ltd also reflects that it has been able to improve its receivables position by a significant margin. TVS Srichakra Ltd has witnessed its receivables days declining from 62 days in FY2007 to 31 days in FY2016.
The management has also acknowledged this improvement in the working capital position of the company and has informed the shareholders about it as part of the section Management Discussion & Analysis in the annual report of FY2016, page 35:
Your company has improved its working capital requirement by reducing debts, improving credit policies with supplier and distributor which has also reduced our interest costs.
Read: 5 Simple Steps to Analyse Operating Performance of Companies
Moreover, when we analyse the key test of a collection of receivables and working capital efficiency, which is the conversion of profits into cash flow from operations by comparing cumulative profit after tax (cPAT) over the last 10 years with the cumulative cash flow from operations (cCFO), then TVS Srichakra Ltd passes with flying colours.
Over the last 10 years (FY2007-16), TVS Srichakra Ltd had a profit after tax (PAT) of ₹502 cr. whereas the CFO over a similar period has been ₹998 cr. The above analysis of inventory turnover and receivables days clearly leads an investor to conclude that TVS Srichakra Ltd has been able to manage its working capital situation in a significantly better manner, thereby leading to a healthy generation of cash flow from operations.
Margin of Safety in the Business of TVS Srichakra Ltd:
i) Self-Sustainable Growth Rate (SSGR):
The case of TVS Srichakra Ltd is another good example of a case where the limitation of SSGR that it does not factor in working capital changes, gets highlighted. The earlier such case discussed on this website was “Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd”:
Read: Analysis: Chaman Lal Setia Exports Ltd (Maharani Basmati Rice)
The investor would notice that TVS Srichakra Ltd has an SSGR almost in single digits over the years, which is much lower than the sales growth rate of 20% achieved by the company. As a result, the investor would have expected that the company would have been reeling under debt, which it would have taken to expand capacity to fuel the sales growth.
However, the analysis of debt levels of TVS Srichakra Ltd over the last 10 years (FY2007-16) indicates that the debt of TVS Srichakra Ltd has increased only by ₹15 cr. from ₹121 cr. in FY2007 to ₹136 cr. in FY2016 despite continuous capex being done by the company over these years. TVS Srichakra Ltd has done a capex of ₹427 cr. over the last 10 years (FY2007-16), which is visible in the steady increase in the net fixed assets and capital work in progress of the company over the years.
The company had taken debt in the interim period, which led to the debt levels spiralling to ₹402 cr. at the end of FY2012. However, since the healthy cash generation has led the company to repay most of its debt and bring the debt levels almost at the same levels of FY2007.
Improvement in the working capital management, as discussed above, is one of the primary factors in the generation of healthy cash flow from operations for the company leading to TVS Srichakra Ltd. being able to grow at a pace higher than SSGR and still being able to keep its leverage levels under control.
Read: Self Sustainable Growth Rate: a measure of Inherent Growth Potential of a Company
In such cases, where the comparative analysis of SSGR and past sales growth does not explain the debt position of the company, an investor should analyse the free cash flow (FCF) position of the company. FCF reveals a composite picture after factoring in the working capital and capex parameters.
ii) Free Cash Flow Analysis of TVS Srichakra Ltd:
An investor would notice that over the last 10 years (FY2007-16), TVS Srichakra has generated ₹998 cr. from CFO whereas it has used only ₹427 cr. in capital expenditure over the same period (FY2007-16), thereby generating significant amount of free cash flows (FCF).
FCF is one of the key parameters to determine the margin of safety present in the business of any company. You may read the following article to understand more about the margin of safety in the purchase price and business.
Read 3 Simple Ways to Assess “Margin of Safety”: The Cornerstone of Stock Investing
This situation of surplus cash has enabled TVS Srichakra Ltd to manage its sales growth and simultaneously bring its leverage levels under control and declare dividends to shareholders.
Dividend levels of TVS Srichakra Ltd have witnessed an increase in line with the profits of the company, which is a good sign as the funds for dividend (₹125 cr. over FY2007-16) seem to have been generated from operating cash flows. An increase in dividends in line with profits also highlights the shareholder friendliness of the management, which seems to believe in sharing the fruits of the growth with its shareholders.
Read: How to do Management Analysis of a Company
However, if the investor reads the annual report for FY2016 of TVS Srichakra Ltd, then she would notice that it has invested about ₹40 cr in one of the TVS group companies: TVS Automobiles Solutions Ltd.
Further advised reading: How Promoters benefit themselves using Related Party Transactions
An investor should read about the terms of these preferred shares to understand whether the company has taken a decision in favour of shareholders when it invested money in a group company instead of reducing its debt further.
An investor would also notice that TVS Automobiles Solutions Ltd is the same company, to whom TVS Srichakra Ltd has sold its subsidiary, TVS Europe Distribution Ltd in FY2016 and booked a profit of ₹18.17 cr. on the sale. It remains to be seen whether the value of the sale transaction between TVS Srichakra Ltd and TVS Automobiles Solutions Ltd is the reflection of the true market value of TVS Europe Distribution Ltd.
In the annual report for FY2016, page 34, the management of TVS Srichakra Ltd has informed the shareholders in the section “Management Discussion & Analysis” that it plans to focus more on building the brand of its products:
Your Company is the market leader in the OEM segment and going forward, plans to consolidate its position at the top. In the aftermarket segment, your Company has been actively making its presence felt and has plans to further improve its market share in the category over the course of this coming year. To support this growth, your Company plans to continue investing in brand building.
If the investor analyses the annual report of FY2016 further, then she would notice that the management has been increasing its spending on advertisement & sales promotions:
The investor would notice that the “Advertisement and Sales Promotion” expenses have witnessed a sharp increase from ₹30 cr. in FY2015 to ₹50 cr. in FY2016.
The investor would also notice that the company has been giving more & more discounts to its buyers. As a result, the expense on “Commission and Discount” has also witnessed a sharp increase from ₹100 cr. in FY2015 to ₹135 cr. in FY2016. It might be one of the strategies of the company to spend more on the advertisements to increase brand recognition in the minds of end customers and simultaneously give more commission & discount to the dealers to increase its market share in the aftermarket segment, which is more profitable than the OEM segment.
This seems to be in line with the management’s belief that the aftermarket (replacement market) is going to be the biggest market segment of the tyre industry in future, as intimated by the company in the section Management Discussion & Analysis in the FY2016 annual report, page 32:
Global Overall Vehicle PARC which determines the replacement market potential has reached the 1 billion mark in 2010 and, going forward, it is expected to grow to 2 billion vehicles by 2030, making the replacement market the biggest market segment in the tyre industry.
Read: Understanding the Annual Report for a Company
Margin of Safety in the market price of TVS Srichakra Ltd:
TVS Srichakra Ltd is currently available at a P/E ratio of about 10.4, which does offer a small margin of safety in the purchase price as described by Benjamin Graham in his book The Intelligent Investor.
However, we recommend that an investor read the following articles to assess the PE ratio to be paid for any stock, taking into account the strength of the business model of the company as well. The strength in the business model of any company is measured by way of its self-sustainable growth rate and the free cash flow generating the ability of the company.
In the absence of any strength in the business model of the company, a low PE ratio of the company’s stock may be a sign of a value trap where instead of being a bargain; the low valuation of the stock price may represent the poor business dynamics of the company.
- 3 Principles to Decide the Ideal P/E Ratio of a Stock for Value Investors
- How to Earn High Returns at Low Risk – Invest in Low P/E Stocks
- Hidden Risk of Investing in High P/E Stocks
Analysis Summary
Overall, TVS Srichakra Ltd seems to be a company growing at a decent pace of 20%, which has been witnessing a steady improvement in the profitability margins due to improvement in the sales mix by focusing more on the high profitability aftermarkets segment and by entering into formula linked cost escalation contracts with OEMs.
TVS Srichakra Ltd has been able to significantly improve its working capital management over the years, which has led it to keep its debt levels under check despite doing significant capex to support the sales growth. The management seems to be sharing the fruits of the business growth with shareholders by increasing the dividends in line with profits and making sure that the dividends are funded out of the operating cash surplus of the company.
However, an investor would be better off, if she keeps track of working capital management by TVS Srichakra Ltd to monitor whether it is able to maintain/continue such working capital position by holding on to its credit policies with buyers and suppliers.
An investor may read more about the guidelines to follow while monitoring stocks in the following article:
Read: How to Monitor Stocks in your Portfolio
These are my views about TVS Srichakra Ltd. However, you should do your own analysis before making any investment-related decision about TVS Srichakra Ltd.
You may use the following steps to analyse the company: “How to do Detailed Analysis of a Company“
Hope it helps!
Regards,
P.S.
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Disclaimer
Registration status with SEBI:
I am registered with SEBI as a research analyst.
Details of financial interest in the Subject Company:
I do not own stocks of the companies mentioned above in my portfolio at the date of writing this article.
